Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1
(Sides 1-0, Favs 1-0, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-1; Ov 0-0, Un 0-1)
Review: Q1, 2, & 3 ALL ended with the score tied.
Q4? Atl 24-16.
Yay team.
I remember from watching him last year, LA coach Miller always had that "deer in the headlights" look. Saw it again last night.
Playing blind here, my methods require a database of scores from games played. I should wait a few weeks to gather some data but what the hell, it's small bucks for fun and action, hoping to find and get on a streak early, before regression sets in.
Today, a side and a total meet the parameters to qualify for one of my spots, NY and Un.
I'm taking NY and fading the Un.
The NY spot is the first to qualify this season, so 0-0 there.
The Un is 0-1, reason enough to Fade until it wins one, but there's also a little trend history.
NY vs Ind LY (Last Year) saw totals land on 189, 184, 182, and 163; three of four high enough to surpass tonight's number, 168'.
And NY was 4-0 vs Ind last year, winning by 11, 18, 8, and 17; all enough to covers tonight's number -7'.
NY won their opener by 5 on the Rd vs Wash while Ind lost by 21 to Conn, surrendering 92 pts.
Looking for similar results from Indy tonight.
NY -7'
NY/Ind Ov 168'
Record: 1-1
(Sides 1-0, Favs 1-0, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-1; Ov 0-0, Un 0-1)
Review: Q1, 2, & 3 ALL ended with the score tied.
Q4? Atl 24-16.
Yay team.
I remember from watching him last year, LA coach Miller always had that "deer in the headlights" look. Saw it again last night.
Playing blind here, my methods require a database of scores from games played. I should wait a few weeks to gather some data but what the hell, it's small bucks for fun and action, hoping to find and get on a streak early, before regression sets in.
Today, a side and a total meet the parameters to qualify for one of my spots, NY and Un.
I'm taking NY and fading the Un.
The NY spot is the first to qualify this season, so 0-0 there.
The Un is 0-1, reason enough to Fade until it wins one, but there's also a little trend history.
NY vs Ind LY (Last Year) saw totals land on 189, 184, 182, and 163; three of four high enough to surpass tonight's number, 168'.
And NY was 4-0 vs Ind last year, winning by 11, 18, 8, and 17; all enough to covers tonight's number -7'.
NY won their opener by 5 on the Rd vs Wash while Ind lost by 21 to Conn, surrendering 92 pts.
Looking for similar results from Indy tonight.
NY -7'
NY/Ind Ov 168'
Jamerx - Thanks for riding with me. Hope ya had all three, or at least a better # on the Ov.
Recap: 2-1
Record: 3-2
(Sides 2-0, Favs 2-0, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)
*correction: Ind was the WF spot last night, I faded it and played the Fav.
Review:
NY wins by 36 pts layin' 7'
Stewie snags 10 rebounds, clearing the 8'
The Ov 168' lost by the hook. Opened 167', closings I saw 170. An earlier buy would have gotten the W at 167' or push at 168.
Two missed FT's in the final minute didn't help.
Worst part was Indy had the last possession, up by 36 NY would have probably allowed a clear path to the basket for a layup but the Fever player dribbled out the clock (bitch.)
I'll remember that the next time I have the Under and, in the same spot, the player takes the shot and the game goes Ov by a point.
One play qualifies tonight, Min as the WF. This spot is 0-1 so . . .
Sea -1'
Recap: 2-1
Record: 3-2
(Sides 2-0, Favs 2-0, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)
*correction: Ind was the WF spot last night, I faded it and played the Fav.
Review:
NY wins by 36 pts layin' 7'
Stewie snags 10 rebounds, clearing the 8'
The Ov 168' lost by the hook. Opened 167', closings I saw 170. An earlier buy would have gotten the W at 167' or push at 168.
Two missed FT's in the final minute didn't help.
Worst part was Indy had the last possession, up by 36 NY would have probably allowed a clear path to the basket for a layup but the Fever player dribbled out the clock (bitch.)
I'll remember that the next time I have the Under and, in the same spot, the player takes the shot and the game goes Ov by a point.
One play qualifies tonight, Min as the WF. This spot is 0-1 so . . .
Sea -1'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-3
(Sides 2-1, Favs 2-1, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)
Missed with Seattle last time in, one of those frustrating games that makes you want to take a shotgun and "go Elvis" on your TV.
The Sonics came back from down 11 pts with just three minutes to go, only to blow multiple opportunities to win in OT.
Up by one, game clock turned off, Minn has the ball; a miss and rebound by Sea and I'll get FT's, hit one for a Push, two and I get a W.
They don't get the rebound, but they tie up Minn for a jump ball between Seattle's tallest player vs Minn's shortest.
The announcers even cracked a joke about it. Sea player easily wins the jump ball, and . . . tips it to one of the Lynx players.
Game goes to double OT and I get tagged with an L.
NEXT! (spoken in the tone of Elaine at the Soup Nazi's counter)
Got a play today that has a 0-0 record in WNBA but was my highest W % in NBA, so . . .
Atl -5'
Record: 3-3
(Sides 2-1, Favs 2-1, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)
Missed with Seattle last time in, one of those frustrating games that makes you want to take a shotgun and "go Elvis" on your TV.
The Sonics came back from down 11 pts with just three minutes to go, only to blow multiple opportunities to win in OT.
Up by one, game clock turned off, Minn has the ball; a miss and rebound by Sea and I'll get FT's, hit one for a Push, two and I get a W.
They don't get the rebound, but they tie up Minn for a jump ball between Seattle's tallest player vs Minn's shortest.
The announcers even cracked a joke about it. Sea player easily wins the jump ball, and . . . tips it to one of the Lynx players.
Game goes to double OT and I get tagged with an L.
NEXT! (spoken in the tone of Elaine at the Soup Nazi's counter)
Got a play today that has a 0-0 record in WNBA but was my highest W % in NBA, so . . .
Atl -5'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-4
(Sides 2-2, Favs 2-1, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)
Last night's L by the hook with Atl -5' was due to a bad buy.
It opened at -4' so I missed out on the best number.
I saw Atl -5' with a higher price on Atl and figured it might go up, so I bought it early in the day.
I figured wrong. It went back down to -5, which would have gotten me a Push.
It closed at 6/6'.
Tonight:
Ind +5'
Record: 3-4
(Sides 2-2, Favs 2-1, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)
Last night's L by the hook with Atl -5' was due to a bad buy.
It opened at -4' so I missed out on the best number.
I saw Atl -5' with a higher price on Atl and figured it might go up, so I bought it early in the day.
I figured wrong. It went back down to -5, which would have gotten me a Push.
It closed at 6/6'.
Tonight:
Ind +5'
Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-4
Hit with Indy last time in, getting +5' they lost by two.
Two weeks into the season and one of the situational spots that I handicap has finally kicked out its first play. It has LA as a WF.
It also has a history of being lousy, so . . .
Dal (wait to buy it; opened as high as Dal -3', I see -1 and even pic 'em now. Tip off 10 hours away, might as well wait see if it keeps moving in my direction. Don't wait too long though in case a buyback happens.)
Record: 4-4
Hit with Indy last time in, getting +5' they lost by two.
Two weeks into the season and one of the situational spots that I handicap has finally kicked out its first play. It has LA as a WF.
It also has a history of being lousy, so . . .
Dal (wait to buy it; opened as high as Dal -3', I see -1 and even pic 'em now. Tip off 10 hours away, might as well wait see if it keeps moving in my direction. Don't wait too long though in case a buyback happens.)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-4
WHEN to buy is as important as WHO to buy.
Last time in I had a play on Dallas. At the time of the post they were -1. I said wait to buy it as it was moving in my favor. Turns out to be a good move as they closed as a dog and won by one point.
Today my charts show Seattle is the wrong favorite. Obviously this early in the season I don't have a lot of data to go on, and this particular spot is just 3-1 overall and 1-1 when playing the home team, but I like the points.
Chi +2'
Record: 5-4
WHEN to buy is as important as WHO to buy.
Last time in I had a play on Dallas. At the time of the post they were -1. I said wait to buy it as it was moving in my favor. Turns out to be a good move as they closed as a dog and won by one point.
Today my charts show Seattle is the wrong favorite. Obviously this early in the season I don't have a lot of data to go on, and this particular spot is just 3-1 overall and 1-1 when playing the home team, but I like the points.
Chi +2'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-5
I have one system that says take Min as a WF (record 1-2) and another play based in part on recent ATS numbers that says take Min, too (record 1-2.)
At 4-1 Min sits atop the division with Vegas next at 3-1, yet the first place team, at Hm, is getting 4 pts?
And Min is undefeated at Hm, 2-0, both wins coming against solid competition, 4-3 Sea and 4-2 NY.
I'm not biting.
LV -4
Record: 5-5
I have one system that says take Min as a WF (record 1-2) and another play based in part on recent ATS numbers that says take Min, too (record 1-2.)
At 4-1 Min sits atop the division with Vegas next at 3-1, yet the first place team, at Hm, is getting 4 pts?
And Min is undefeated at Hm, 2-0, both wins coming against solid competition, 4-3 Sea and 4-2 NY.
I'm not biting.
LV -4
Reese-Clark
ESPN at noon
ESPN at noon
